Nshima, a sort of porridge made from maize flour and water, is a staple food in Zambia. For Zambian people, ‘maize is life’: it means both food security and economic well-being. This means that rises and falls of the price of corn meal affects the routine of the country considerably. In these days, there is a short supply of maize mill and the price has almost doubled since November: around 100 Kwacha (US$9)/25 Kg.

 

A phenomenon that epitomizes a larger crisis looming across Southern African countries where severe droughts undermine the agricultural sector and affect food security programs. Districts in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, Madagascar, Southern Angola and Northern Zambia experience very alarming levels of water deficit. There are frequent power outages in Zambia and Zimbabwe. At the Karima dam, water levels are approaching the critical threshold.

 

El Niño has caused the lowest amount of rainfall in Zambia and Southern Africa, boosting maize prices by at least 50 percent. For instance, Zambia, which produces non-genetically modified maize, and is the only country in the region that had a surplus from the last harvest, has been facing the lowest rainfall levels since decades. A severe maize shortage after crop failure in 2015-2016, which, against a domestic demand of around 100,000 metric tons, implies an output drop by around 30 percent. On Febrary the 12th, a WFP FEWS NET FAO JRC joint statement expected the food insecure population to increase significantly between 2016 and 2017.  

 

Agriculture-oriented economies like Zambia and South Africa are now forced to import necessary staples like maize.  In front of the persistent drought, few weeks ago, Zambia’s President Edgar Lungu disclosed the government’s intention to start importing maize in order to avert the risk of famine “There could be a likelihood that Government will have to prepare to import maize to cushion the impact due to the erratic rain pattern that the country has experienced. There is that possibility but then again, we have to put measures in place now,” Mr Lungu said. “All stakeholders are on board to see how we can manage, and discussions are on-going.  The talks are still on technical level. But there is a strong indication that we may have to import maize and the time to start preparing is now,” he continued.

 

To this, the import of cheap maize from Latin America makes the life of rural farmers even more difficult. Unscrupulous millers, like in an E.P. Thomson’s book, are blamed to deliberately hoard maize to push prices up. The time is passing and things get worse day after day.  The economic and social costs could be unbearable and the import-dependence may charge a fragile economy of an intolerable burden.